For most brands, offers are still viewed primarily as a conversion tool – a way to capture demand that already exists. New research from Reward Gateway|Edenred suggests that this assumption is a missed opportunity as brands plan for the key trading period at the end of the year.
Our latest report – The Offer Economy: Golden Quarter 2026 – examined how 7,500 consumers planned to shop during the 2025 Golden Quarter and what they actually did once the season unfolded.
What we found is that offers do far more than influence whether consumers buy. They influence what consumers buy, how much they spend and which brands they choose. More importantly, they unlock spending that was never part of the original plan.
For brands, that changes the role of offers entirely in the Golden Quarter. The opportunity is not simply to convert existing demand but to create revenue that might not otherwise have existed.
Timing: Black Friday isn’t the whole story
The starting point is understanding how consumers actually behave during the Golden Quarter. Some 71% of consumers began Q4 with a rough budget or shopping plan in mind, but 41% ultimately spent more than they intended.
Another assumption challenged by the research is the idea that Golden Quarter spending is concentrated around Black Friday opportunities.
It remains important but in reality, consumers are shopping across a much wider window. More than half (54%) begin shopping before Black Friday arrives, while 35% continue shopping into the post-Christmas sales period and early January. Only 16% say Black Friday week is when they do most of their shopping.
For brands, this means that waiting until Black Friday to activate means arriving late for a large proportion of consumers. The revenue opportunity extends before and far beyond Black Friday. Brands that maintain visibility throughout the quarter are better positioned to capture demand whenever it emerges.
Quality: what a good offer actually does
While timing gets a brand in front of consumers, whether this converts to spend depends on the quality of the offer itself.
The proof of this is in how people spent their money in the Golden Quarter last year:
- 22% added extra items to their basket when using an offer
- 20% bought something they would not otherwise have considered
- 20% spent more overall than originally planned
- 19% tried a brand they had never bought from before
- 16% upgraded to a more expensive option than originally intended
These are not examples of consumers simply paying less for something they already intended to buy. They represent additional revenue that is unlikely to have been captured without the influence of an offer.
Even in categories typically associated with high consideration and lengthy decision-making, consumers are highly responsive to value.
In electronics, 65% of purchases were unplanned and 76% were influenced by offers. In travel, half of purchases were unplanned and 70% were influenced by offers.
Fashion and beauty showed similar patterns, demonstrating that consumers remain open to discovery, upgrades and additional spending across a wide range of categories.
The common thread is that consumers are more flexible than many brands assume. Budgets may exist, but they are not fixed; and while brand preferences may be well established, they can still be influenced by the right offer.
Trust has become a performance variable
The other standout finding from the research is on where consumers choose to engage with offers.
Consumers will always be enthusiastic about finding value, but what is changing is their confidence in where that value is presented.
Some 28% said it was difficult to identify genuine deals during Black Friday, while 51% experienced trust issues with deal environments during Q4.
Little wonder then that our research found 80% trust employee discount platforms to provide legitimate offers, compared with just 22% for offers discovered through search.
This tells us clearly that the same offer won’t perform equally in every environment. Consumers who trust the channel are more likely to engage with the offer, consider the brand and complete a purchase. Trust influences attention, confidence and ultimately conversion.
For brands investing in partnerships, channel selection is now a key performance decision.
Winning the Golden Quarter starts now
The Golden Quarter remains the most important trading period in the retail calendar. But the way consumers navigate it continues to evolve.
They are spending beyond their plans and discovering new brands. And they are upgrading purchases and responding to offers in ways that create revenue opportunities many brands fail to grasp or measure.
Most importantly, they are doing so across a longer shopping window and through channels they increasingly trust.
The brands that succeed will be the ones that recognise that offers are not simply a mechanism for conversion but a tool for expanding demand among increasingly offer-savvy consumers.
Understanding that difference may be the most important insight for Q4 planning in 2026.
